en
Doctoral thesis
Open access
English

Modeling future migration trends and their impact on the Swiss pension system

ContributorsMilivinti, Alice
Defense date2018-11-14
Abstract

The thesis develops analytical tools able to shade light on the changing dynamics migration is experiencing and to evaluate how much confidence states should put on migration to deal with their demographic and fiscal challenges. The analysis, primarily based on Swiss data, is mainly divided in two parts. First, the role of countries interconnections in shaping migration trajectories is taken into consideration through spatial econometric models. Second, a new forecast method, which frame a semi parametric model within the Bayesian paradigm, is elaborated. The latter is further employed to predict the challenges the Swiss pension system is going to face in the next decades.

eng
Keywords
  • Immigration
  • Spatial econometric models
  • Bayesian time series
Funding
  • Autre - nccr - on the move
Citation (ISO format)
MILIVINTI, Alice. Modeling future migration trends and their impact on the Swiss pension system. 2018. doi: 10.13097/archive-ouverte/unige:111744
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Thesis
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Technical informations

Creation11/15/2018 3:20:00 PM
First validation11/15/2018 3:20:00 PM
Update time03/15/2023 3:08:05 PM
Status update03/15/2023 3:08:04 PM
Last indexation01/29/2024 9:41:22 PM
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