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Scientific article
English

The incubation period of acute retroviral syndrome as a multistep process: a parametric survival analysis

Contributors

Vanhems, Philippe; Voirin, Nicolas; Philippe, Pierre; Hirschel, Bernard; Brassard, Joelle; Carr, Andrew; Cooper, David; Perrin, Luc; Allard, Robert

Published in

Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes, vol. 37, no. 4, p. 1529-1533

Publication date

2004

Abstract

A long duration of acute retroviral syndrome (ARS) and a short incubation of ARS (IncARS) are independent predictors of a fast progression to AIDS. The first objective of this study was to validate previous estimates of IncARS by comparing durations between health care workers (HCWs) accidentally infected by HIV and individuals infected by other routes (non-health care workers [N-HCWs]). The second objective was to use parametric survival models to generate hypotheses on various steps occurring during the IncARS. Data from a prospective cohort of patients with documented ARS and from individuals with ARS as the result of accidental exposure to HIV were analyzed. Nonparametric and parametric survival models were used to describe the incubation of ARS. No differences were found for the median IncARS between 34 HCWs (21.5 days) and 70 N-HCWs (21.5 days) (log-rank test, P = 0.72). According to survival models, IncARS can be modeled with a gamma and/or lognormal model with means of 26.4 days and 26.7 days, respectively. The gamma model suggests that 3 sequential stages are present during the IncARS, which is compatible with basic science investigations identifying crossing of the epithelial barrier by the virus, the virus-host cell interactions, and the viral systemic dissemination.

Keywords

  • Cohort Studies
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • HIV Infections/ diagnosis/transmission
  • Humans
  • Infectious Disease Transmission, Patient-to-Professional
  • Male
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Survival Analysis
  • Syndrome
  • Time Factors

UNIGE affiliation entities

Citation (ISO format)

VANHEMS, Philippe et al. The incubation period of acute retroviral syndrome as a multistep process: a parametric survival analysis. In: Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes, 2004, vol. 37, n° 4, p. 1529–1533. doi: 10.1097/01.qai.0000131848.20077.eb

Main files (1)

Article (Published version)

Identifiers

Additional URL for this publication

http://ovidsp.ovid.com/ovidweb.cgi?T=JS&NEWS=N&PAGE=fulltext&AN=00126334-200412010-00013&LSLINK=80&D=ovft

Journal ISSN

1525-4135
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Technical informations

Creation

21/06/2010 10:26:50

First validation

21/06/2010 10:26:50

Update

06/05/2025 11:41:25

Status update

06/05/2025 11:41:25

Last indexation

06/05/2025 11:41:27
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