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Oracle-Based optimization applied to climate model calibration

Beltran, C.
Edwards, N.R.
Year 2004
Collection Cahiers de recherche; 2004.16
Abstract In this paper, we show how oracle-based optimization can be used effectively for the calibration of an intermediate complexity climate model. In a fully developed example, we estimate the 12 principal transport and mixing parameters of the C-GOLDSTEIN climate model by using an oracle-based optimization tool, Proximal-ACCPM. The oracle is a procedure which finds, for each query point, a value for the goodness-of-fit function and an evaluation of its gradient with respect to the parameters to be estimated. The difficulty in the model calibration problem stems from the need to undertake costly calculations for each simulation and also from the fact that the error function used to assess the goodness-of-fit is not convex w.r.t. the calibration parameters. However, Proximal-ACCPM is able to find good candidates for parameter calibration approximations in spite of this non-convexity. The method converges to a 'best fit' estimate over ten times faster than a comparable test using the ensemble Kalman filter. The approach is simple to implement and potentially useful in calibrating computationally demanding models based on temporal integration (simulation), for which functional derivative information is not readily available.
Keywords Oracle-based optimizationCutting plane methodModel calibrationParameter estimationC-GOLDSTEINProximal-ACCPM
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BELTRAN, C. et al. Oracle-Based optimization applied to climate model calibration. 2004 https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:5766

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Deposited on : 2010-04-15

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