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Proposed demographic scenario analysis and overview of driving forces and justification, model input parameters and allocation rules

Publication date2011
Abstract

This document illustrates the different phases leading to the creation of demographic scenarios for the countries included in the Black Sea Catchment (BSC). According with the enviroGRIDS scenarios, we analyze the UN projection variants for population, and we propose a methodology for the downscaling from national to regional level (NUTS2). Results include urban and total population trends over the period 2010-2050 for the 214 enviroGRIDS regions, consistent with BS HOT, BS ALONE, BS COOP and BS COOL scenarios. Successively, we illustrate the methodology do define the estimation of future urban area surfaces, based mainly on the historical and future trends of urban densities.

Keywords
  • EnviroGRIDS
  • Demographic scenarios
Citation (ISO format)
DE BONO, Andréa et al. Proposed demographic scenario analysis and overview of driving forces and justification, model input parameters and allocation rules. 2011
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Report
accessLevelPublic
Identifiers
  • PID : unige:34236
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Technical informations

Creation02/10/2014 9:14:00 AM
First validation02/10/2014 9:14:00 AM
Update time03/14/2023 8:58:03 PM
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