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Title

Proposed demographic scenario analysis and overview of driving forces and justification, model input parameters and allocation rules

Authors
Barbosa, Ana
Mancosu, Emanuele
Year 2011
Abstract This document illustrates the different phases leading to the creation of demographic scenarios for the countries included in the Black Sea Catchment (BSC). According with the enviroGRIDS scenarios, we analyze the UN projection variants for population, and we propose a methodology for the downscaling from national to regional level (NUTS2). Results include urban and total population trends over the period 2010-2050 for the 214 enviroGRIDS regions, consistent with BS HOT, BS ALONE, BS COOP and BS COOL scenarios. Successively, we illustrate the methodology do define the estimation of future urban area surfaces, based mainly on the historical and future trends of urban densities.
Keywords EnviroGRIDSDemographic scenarios
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Structures
Research groups TIGERS
Laboratoire InfoGéo
Ecologie humaine
Envirospace Lab
Global Resource Information Database (GRID)
ISE Pôle Informatique environnementale
Pôle/Institut Gouvernance de l'environnement et développement territorial (PI-GEDT)
ISE Climat
Citation
(ISO format)
DE BONO, Andréa et al. Proposed demographic scenario analysis and overview of driving forces and justification, model input parameters and allocation rules. 2011 https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:34236

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Deposited on : 2014-02-10

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