Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Climate network characterization of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation edge state

Published inPhysical review research, vol. 8, no. 3
First online date2026-09-03
Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been identified as a tipping element in the Earth system. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is urgent to develop robust methods for determining the probability of future AMOC transitions. Recent studies using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) have revealed the importance of an AMOC edge state, located on the boundary of the attraction basin of the collapsed state, in AMOC transitions. Here, we provide a characterization of this edge state through climate networks, using instantaneous temporal correlations between geographical locations to define the network links. We apply the climate network analysis to a set of EMIC simulations with CO 2 forcing according to an intermediate climate change scenario (SSP2-4.5), which exhibit qualitatively different AMOC responses as a result of interaction with the edge state. We show that network measures, specifically the normalized degree centrality, reveal the presence of teleconnections across the equator as the AMOC approaches the edge state. A similar result is obtained for an Earth system model (ESM) simulating AMOC collapse or recovery, suggesting that climate networks could be used to detect an AMOC instability in ESMs and observations.

Funding
Citation (ISO format)
MOINAT, Laure Agnès Liliane et al. Climate network characterization of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation edge state. In: Physical review research, 2026, vol. 8, n° 3. doi: 10.1103/q9bd-4h4j
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Additional URL for this publicationhttps://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/q9bd-4h4j
Journal ISSN2643-1564
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