Master
English

Modelling climate tipping-point cascade: the interlinked evolution of ocean circulation and Greenland ice sheet

Number of pages62
Master program titleMaster Universitaire des Sciences de l’Environnement (MUSE)
Defense date2026-04-17
Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change threatens to destabilize several key components of the Earth's climate system, known as tipping elements, which may cross critical thresholds and undergo abrupt, potentially irreversible transitions. Among these, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) represent two of the most vulnerable and interconnected subsystems. This thesis investigates the susceptibility of both elements to tipping behavior within an asynchronously coupled climate modeling framework, and examines the extent to which their interactions may trigger cascading tipping-point events at the global scale. The methodological approach relies on the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm), asynchronously coupled to the BIOME4 vegetation model and the MITgcmIS ice sheet model. Two slightly different control configurations were defined at a fixed atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 360 ppm, corresponding to a climate state approximately +2°C warmer than preindustrial levels in our simulations. Starting from these stable states, destabilization protocols were applied as instantaneous perturbations representing different levels of GrIS melt as well as freshwater hosing experiments in the North Atlantic. Results show that the AMOC behaves as a sensitive and influential component of the climate system. Depending on the magnitude of imposed perturbations and the background state of the system, the AMOC can either exhibit resilience and recover toward its reference state, or undergo a tipping event characterized by a collapse of the overturning circulation. When tipping occurs, the reduction in northward oceanic heat transport induces pronounced cooling across the Northern Hemisphere — particularly over Greenland, the North Atlantic, and Europe, with anomalies reaching up to −6°C. In response, the Southern Hemisphere, and Antarctica in particular, experiences substantial warming of +6 to +8°C, consistent with the bipolar thermal seesaw mechanism.

Citation (ISO format)
LUCET, Thomas Vitalis. Modelling climate tipping-point cascade: the interlinked evolution of ocean circulation and Greenland ice sheet. Master, 2026.
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Master thesis
accessLevelRestricted
Identifiers
  • PID : unige:193882
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Creation31/05/2026 20:57:53
First validation08/06/2026 10:06:33
Update08/06/2026 10:06:33
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