Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains

Published inScientific reports, vol. 11, no. 1, 15729
First online date2021-07-30
Abstract

Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.

Keywords
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control
  • COVID-19 / transmission
  • COVID-19 Vaccines / therapeutic use
  • Humans
  • Immunization Programs
  • Models, Biological
  • Population Density
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification
  • Vaccination
Funding
  • European Commission - Characterizing the fitness landscape on population and global scales [771209]
Citation (ISO format)
RELLA, Simon A et al. Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains. In: Scientific reports, 2021, vol. 11, n° 1, p. 15729. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3
Main files (1)
Article (Published version)
Identifiers
Additional URL for this publicationhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3
Journal ISSN2045-2322
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6downloads

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