Doctoral thesis
English

The theory of everything: A model that provides a unified solution for dealing with uncertainty in solving MCDM problems

ContributorsZakeri, Shervinorcid
Number of pages718
Imprimatur date2024-02-07
Defense date2024
Abstract

Uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of the decision-making process, especially in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems, where every stage of problem-solving involves some degree of uncertainty. MCDM problems are characterized by a framework of multiple criteria and alternatives, designed to achieve one or several objectives of the decision-making process. Ranging from everyday issues to highly complex industrial, military, and political challenges, MCDM problems have outcomes that can significantly impact many lives or incur substantial financial costs. Therefore, developing solutions that produce the least uncertain outputs is crucial.

Uncertainty in decision-making typically arises when decision-makers lack complete information about the elements of decision analysis or its outcomes. The primary aim of this paper-based doctoral dissertation is to offer a comprehensive solution, termed the 'theory of everything,' that addresses all sources of uncertainty in MCDM problems. Thirteen sources of uncertainty have been identified, including:

  • Decision-making goals
  • Decision-makers
  • Linguistic variables and scales
  • Conversion of uncertain to certain values
  • Weighting methods
  • MCDM method processes
  • Time
  • Missing information
  • Multi-layer problems
  • Philosophies and policies, encompassing the decision-making paradox
  • Validation
  • The Rank Reversal Paradox
  • To tackle each of these sources, various MCDM algorithms, statistical measures, novel scales, new numerical sets, a game, and a new theoretical framework were proposed. These solutions are detailed across eighteen scientific articles. In the final chapter, the unified model, including its components, properties, and limitations, is thoroughly discussed, offering a holistic approach to managing uncertainty in MCDM.

    Keywords
    • MCDM
    • Uncertainty
    • Uncertainty sources
    • Unified model
    • Theory of Everything
    Citation (ISO format)
    ZAKERI, Shervin. The theory of everything: A model that provides a unified solution for dealing with uncertainty in solving MCDM problems. Doctoral Thesis, 2024. doi: 10.13097/archive-ouverte/unige:182825
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