Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Upslope migration of snow avalanches in a warming climate

Publication date2021-10-25
First online date2021-10-25
Abstract

Snow avalanches represent a major threat in mountain environments, where they cause damage to critical infrastructure and claim hundreds of lives every year. Here, we document an unambiguous upslope migration of snow avalanches with climate change, a physical mechanism whose existence could previously not be demonstrated. In the Vosges Mountains, we show evidence that winter warming of +1.35 °C induced a sevenfold reduction in the number of avalanches, as well as a reduction of their magnitude and shortening of the avalanche season. These results show that low-to-medium elevation mountain ranges may serve as sentinels to anticipate future changes in snow processes and related risks in higher mountain environments and could thus help in the design of efficient adaptation strategies.

Keywords
  • Climate change
  • Cryosphere
  • Hierarchical Bayesian modeling
  • Historical data
  • Natural hazards
Citation (ISO format)
GIACONA, Florie et al. Upslope migration of snow avalanches in a warming climate. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021, vol. 118, n° 44, p. e2107306118. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2107306118
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Article (Published version)
Identifiers
ISSN of the journal0027-8424
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