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Scientific article
Open access
English

A reassessment of the association between political interest and electoral participation: adding vote overreporting to the equation

Published inActa politica, 20 p.
Publication date2022-03-11
First online date2022-03-11
Abstract

Electoral participation research points to political interest as a strong and consistent predictor of voting, but overlooks the propensity of interested people to overreport in surveys. Vote validation studies demonstrate that vote overreporting exaggerates the association between political interest and turnout, but fails to highlight the pathways through which this bias occurs. To fill this gap and link these two strands of literature, we take a closer look at the relationships between political interest, likelihood of voting (as defined by one's actual voting record), and participation in given vote, while taking care of overreporting. Applying causal mediation models to a unique set of validated vote data, we show that the modus operandi of overreporting is both direct and indirect: A portion of politically interested people overreport their vote regardless of whether they usually vote or not. Yet, the indirect path also matters: Another portion of interested people do vote frequently, which prompts them to overreport if they for once abstain. This is consequential for the commonly found association between political interest and turnout.

eng
Keywords
  • Post-election surveys
  • Political interest
  • Turnout bias
  • Vote overreporting
  • Validated vote data
  • Mediation models
Citation (ISO format)
GOLDBERG, Andreas C., SCIARINI, Pascal. A reassessment of the association between political interest and electoral participation: adding vote overreporting to the equation. In: Acta politica, 2022, p. 20 p. doi: 10.1057/s41269-022-00238-7
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Article (Published version)
Identifiers
ISSN of the journal0001-6810
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Technical informations

Creation03/14/2022 9:19:00 AM
First validation03/14/2022 9:19:00 AM
Update time03/16/2023 2:55:52 AM
Status update03/16/2023 2:55:51 AM
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