Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines

Published inPLoS neglected tropical diseases, vol. 16, no. 2, e0009262
Publication date2022-02-04
First online date2022-02-04
Abstract

Epidemics are among the most costly and destructive natural hazards globally. To reduce the impacts of infectious disease outbreaks, the development of a risk index for infectious diseases can be effective, by shifting infectious disease control from emergency response to early detection and prevention.In this study, we introduce a methodology to construct and validate an epidemic risk index using only open data, with a specific focus on scalability. The external validation of our risk index makes use of distance sampling to correct for underreporting of infections, which is often a major source of biases, based on geographical accessibility to health facilities. We apply this methodology to assess the risk of dengue in the Philippines.The results show that the computed dengue risk correlates well with standard epidemiological metrics, i.e. dengue incidence (p = 0.002). Here, dengue risk constitutes of the two dimensions susceptibility and exposure. Susceptibility was particularly associated with dengue incidence (p = 0.048) and dengue case fatality rate (CFR) (p = 0.029). Exposure had lower correlations to dengue incidence (p = 0.193) and CFR (p = 0.162). Highest risk indices were seen in the south of the country, mainly among regions with relatively high susceptibility to dengue outbreaks.Our findings reflect that the modelled epidemic risk index is a strong indication of sub-national dengue disease patterns and has therefore proven suitability for disease risk assessments in the absence of timely epidemiological data. The presented methodology enables the construction of a practical, evidence-based tool to support public health and humanitarian decision-making processes with simple, understandable metrics. The index overcomes the main limitations of existing indices in terms of construction and actionability.

Keywords
  • Dengue
  • Risk
  • Accessmod
  • Reporting bias
  • Philippines
Citation (ISO format)
HIERINK, Fleur et al. Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines. In: PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2022, vol. 16, n° 2, p. e0009262. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009262
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Article (Accepted version)
Identifiers
Journal ISSN1935-2727
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Technical informations

Creation07/02/2022 09:25:00
First validation07/02/2022 09:25:00
Update time16/03/2023 02:38:15
Status update16/03/2023 02:38:14
Last indexation01/11/2024 00:50:22
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