Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Exploring the possibility space: Taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models

Publication date2021
Abstract

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have emerged as key tools for building and assessing long term climate mitigation scenarios. Due to their central role in the recent IPCC assessments, and international climate policy analyses more generally, and the high uncertainties related to future projections, IAMs have been critically assessed by scholars from different fields receiving various critiques ranging from adequacy of their methods to how their results are used and communicated. Although IAMs are conceptually diverse and evolved in very different directions, they tend to be criticized under the umbrella of "IAMs". Here we first briefly summarise the IAM landscape and how models differ from each other. We then proceed to discuss six prominent critiques emerging from the recent literature, reflect and respond to them in the light of IAM diversity and ongoing work and suggest ways forward. The six critiques relate to (1) representation of heterogeneous actors in the models, (2) modelling of technology diffusion and dynamics, (3) representation of capital markets, (4) energy-economy feedbacks, (5) policy scenarios, and (6) interpretation and use of model results.

Keywords
  • Integrated assessment models
  • Heterogeneity
  • Technology diffusion
  • Energy-economy feedback
  • Finance
  • Policy scenarios
  • Model interpretation
Funding
  • European Commission - Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making [821124]
Citation (ISO format)
KEPPO, Ilkka et al. Exploring the possibility space: Taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models. In: Environmental Research Letters, 2021. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8
Main files (1)
Article (Accepted version)
accessLevelPublic
Identifiers
Journal ISSN1748-9326
344views
109downloads

Technical informations

Creation02/04/2021 18:43:00
First validation02/04/2021 18:43:00
Update time16/03/2023 00:22:50
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