Exploring the possibility space: Taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models

Article Article scientifique Article Exploring the possibility space: Taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models eng 2021 author Keppo Ilkka author Butnar Isabela author Bauer Nicolas author Caspani Matteo 931923 author Edelenbosch Oreane author Emmerling Johannes author Fragkos Panagiotis author Guivarch Celine author Harmsen Mathijs author Lefèvre Julien author Le Gallic Thomas author Leimbach Marian author McDowall Will author Mercure Jean-Francois author Schaeffer Roberto author Trutnevyte Evelina 0000-0002-1716-6192 892077 author Wagner Fabian 10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8 1748-9326 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8 Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have emerged as key tools for building and assessing long term climate mitigation scenarios. Due to their central role in the recent IPCC assessments, and international climate policy analyses more generally, and the high uncertainties related to future projections, IAMs have been critically assessed by scholars from different fields receiving various critiques ranging from adequacy of their methods to how their results are used and communicated. Although IAMs are conceptually diverse and evolved in very different directions, they tend to be criticized under the umbrella of "IAMs". Here we first briefly summarise the IAM landscape and how models differ from each other. We then proceed to discuss six prominent critiques emerging from the recent literature, reflect and respond to them in the light of IAM diversity and ongoing work and suggest ways forward. The six critiques relate to (1) representation of heterogeneous actors in the models, (2) modelling of technology diffusion and dynamics, (3) representation of capital markets, (4) energy-economy feedbacks, (5) policy scenarios, and (6) interpretation and use of model results. Integrated assessment models Heterogeneity Technology diffusion Energy-economy feedback Finance Policy scenarios Model interpretation Dewey 333.7-333.9 Dewey 550 European Commission Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making 821124 NAVIGATE EU H2020 18 Institut des sciences de l'environnement 0DB 41 Département F.-A. Forel des sciences de l'environnement et de l'eau 153 false 1245 FORE10 Renewable Energy Systems 945 ISE Energie 938 ISE Pôle Sciences Environmental Research Letters e9de1e0f-9dbd-46ce-af8f-80c6adb7080a Article (Accepted version) Public Keppo+et+al_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748-9326_abe5d8.pdf 369710 application/pdf openAccess Centres et instituts / Institut des sciences de l'environnement Faculté des sciences / Section des sciences de la Terre et de l'Environnement / Département F.-A. Forel des sciences de l'environnement et de l'eau

Title	Published in	Access level	OA Policy	Year	Views	Downloads

Exploring the possibility space: Taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models	Environmental Research Letters			2021	344	109

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Caspani, Matteo