Background: Long-term survival and functional outcomes should influence admission decisions to intensive care, especially for patients with advanced disease. Aim: To determine whether physicians' predictions of long-term prognosis influenced admission decisions for patients with and without advanced disease. Design: A prospective study was conducted. Physicians estimated patient survival with intensive care and with care on the ward, and the probability of 4 long-term outcomes: leaving hospital alive, survival at 6 months, recovery of functional status, and recovery of cognitive status. Patient mortality at 28 days was recorded. We built multivariate logistic regression models using admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) as the dependent variable.