en
Scientific article
Open access
English

Improving Medium‐Range Forecasts of Rain‐on‐Snow Events in Prealpine Areas

Published inWater Resources Research, vol. 55, no. 9, p. 7638-7661
Publication date2019
Abstract

Rain-on-snow (RoS) events have caused severe floods in mountainous catchments in the recent past. Challenges in forecasting such events are uncertainties in meteorological input variables, the accurate estimation of snow cover and deficits in process understanding during runoff formation. Here, we evaluate the potential of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF IFS) to forecast RoS disposition (i.e., minimum rainfall amounts, initial snow cover, and meltwater contribution) several days ahead. We thereby evaluate forecasts of rain and snowfall with disdrometer observations and show that ensemble-based forecasts have larger potential than the high-resolution forecast of ECMWF IFS. Then, we use ECMWF IFS weather forecasts as input to a conceptual hydrological model, which is calibrated using estimates of snow-covered area (SCA), snow water equivalent (SWE), and discharge observations. We show that the forecast skill of this model chain is reasonably high with respect to SCA and SWE, even several days ahead. However, a number of RoS events are missed in the forecast, mainly due to an underestimation of rainfall amounts. These misses can be reduced by lowering the rainfall amount threshold for the forecast as compared to the analysis, being accompanied by only a moderate increase in false alarm rates. In contrast, the forecast of RoS disposition is found to be less sensitive to thresholds of initial snow cover and meltwater contribution. We conclude that valuable disposition warnings for RoS events can be issued several days ahead, and we illustrate this idea with a case study.

Keywords
  • Rain‐on‐snow events
  • Flood forecasting
  • Early warning
  • Precipitation type
  • Mountain hydrology
  • Snow cover
Citation (ISO format)
FEHLMANN, Michael et al. Improving Medium‐Range Forecasts of Rain‐on‐Snow Events in Prealpine Areas. In: Water Resources Research, 2019, vol. 55, n° 9, p. 7638–7661. doi: 10.1029/2018WR024644
Main files (1)
Article (Published version)
accessLevelPublic
Identifiers
ISSN of the journal0043-1397
228views
146downloads

Technical informations

Creation11/24/2020 3:10:00 PM
First validation11/24/2020 3:10:00 PM
Update time03/15/2023 11:33:21 PM
Status update03/15/2023 11:33:21 PM
Last indexation01/17/2024 11:42:46 AM
All rights reserved by Archive ouverte UNIGE and the University of GenevaunigeBlack