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Regional variability in the frequency and magnitude of large explosive volcanic eruptions

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Published in Geology. 2017, vol. 45, no. 2, G38372.1
Abstract Quantifying the frequency at which volcanic eruptions of different size occurs is impor- tant for hazard assessment. Volcanic records can be used to estimate the recurrence rate of large-magnitude eruptions (magnitude ≥4), but recording biases that impact data complete- ness complicate analysis. To overcome these biases, we conceptualize the volcanic record as a series of individual and unique time series associated by a common behavior. Thus, we approach issues of completeness on a volcano-by-volcano basis and use a hierarchical Bayes- ian approach to characterize the common frequency-magnitude (f-M) behavior for different groups of volcanoes. We identify variations in the f-M relationship between different volcano types and between different volcanic arcs. By accounting for systematic under-recording in the volcanic record, we also calculate the global recurrence rates for large-magnitude erup- tions during the Holocene, which are similar to previous estimates. However, higher recur- rence rates for smaller-magnitude events are observed, which is a result of our adjustments for data completeness. Quantifying how the f-M relationship varies between different groups of volcanoes provides an opportunity to understand how the tectonic setting in uences f-M behavior, which is important to quantify long-term regional volcanic hazard.
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Research group Petrology and Volcanology
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European Commission: FEVER
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SHELDRAKE, Thomas Edward, CARICCHI, Luca. Regional variability in the frequency and magnitude of large explosive volcanic eruptions. In: Geology, 2017, vol. 45, n° 2, p. G38372.1. doi: 10.1130/G38372.1 https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:90272

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Deposited on : 2016-12-13

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