UNIGE document Scientific Article
previous document  unige:7532  next document
add to browser collection
Title

The dynamics of disease progression in sepsis: Markov modeling describing the natural history and the likely impact of effective antisepsis agents

Authors
Rangel-Frausto, M. S.
Hwang, T.
Woolson, R. F.
Wenzel, R. P.
Published in Clinical Infectious Diseases. 1998, vol. 27, no. 1, p. 185-190
Abstract We conducted a 9-month prospective cohort study of 2,527 patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome in three intensive care units and three general wards in a tertiary health care institution. Markov models were developed to predict the probability of movement to and from more severe stages--sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock--at 1, 3, and 7 days. For patients with sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock, the probabilities of remaining in the same category after 1 day were.65,.68, and.61, respectively. The probability for progression after 1 day was.09 for sepsis to severe sepsis and.026 for severe sepsis to shock. The probability of patients with sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock dying after 1 day was.005,.009, and.079, respectively. The model can be used to predict the reduction in end organ dysfunction and mortality with use of increasingly effective antisepsis agents.
Keywords Disease ProgressionHumansIntensive Care UnitsMarkov ChainsProbabilityProspective StudiesSepsis/drug therapy/mortality/ physiopathologySystemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome/drug therapy/mortality/physiopathology
Identifiers
PMID: 9675475
Full text
Article - document accessible for UNIGE members only Limited access to UNIGE
Other version: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4460469
Structures
Research group Staphylocoques dorés résistants à la méthicilline et hygiène hospitalière (330)
Citation
(ISO format)
RANGEL-FRAUSTO, M. S. et al. The dynamics of disease progression in sepsis: Markov modeling describing the natural history and the likely impact of effective antisepsis agents. In: Clinical Infectious Diseases, 1998, vol. 27, n° 1, p. 185-190. https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:7532

241 hits

0 download

Update

Deposited on : 2010-06-21

Export document
Format :
Citation style :