We theoretically study lattice modulation experiments with ultracold fermions in optical lattices. We focus on the regime relevant to current experiments when interaction strength is larger than the bandwidth and temperature is higher than magnetic superexchange energy. We obtain analytical expressions for the rate of doublon production as a function of modulation frequency, filling factor, and temperature. We use local density approximation to average over inhomogeneous density for atoms in a parabolic trap and find excellent agreement with experimentally measured values. Our results suggest that lattice modulation experiments can be used for thermometry of strongly interacting fermionic ensembles in optical lattices.