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Scientific article
English

Applying a system approach to forecast the total hepatitis C virus-infected population size: model validation using US data

Published inLiver international, vol. 31 Suppl 2, p. 4-17
Publication date2011
Abstract

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with chronic progressive liver disease. Its global epidemiology is still not well ascertained and its impact will be confronted with a higher burden in the next decade. Aim: The goal of this study was to develop a tool that can be used to predict the future prevalence of the disease in different countries and, more importantly, to understand the cause and effect relationship between the key assumptions and future trends.

Keywords
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Computer Simulation
  • Epidemics
  • Europe/epidemiology
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • Hepatitis C, Chronic/diagnosis/epidemiology/mortality/therapy/transmission
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical
  • Numerical Analysis, Computer-Assisted
  • Prevalence
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Time Factors
  • Uncertainty
  • United States/epidemiology
Citation (ISO format)
KERSHENOBICH, David et al. Applying a system approach to forecast the total hepatitis C virus-infected population size: model validation using US data. In: Liver international, 2011, vol. 31 Suppl 2, p. 4–17. doi: 10.1111/j.1478-3231.2011.02535.x
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Article (Published version)
accessLevelRestricted
Identifiers
ISSN of the journal1478-3223
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Technical informations

Creation11/05/2012 8:05:00 AM
First validation11/05/2012 8:05:00 AM
Update time03/14/2023 7:57:05 PM
Status update03/14/2023 7:57:05 PM
Last indexation01/16/2024 12:55:55 AM
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