en
Scientific article
English

Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities of osteoporotic fracture in Swiss men and women

Published inOsteoporosis international, vol. 20, no. 7, p. 1131-1140
Publication date2009
Abstract

SUMMARY: Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures were determined by gender, age, and BMD values. Remaining lifetime probability at age 50 years was 20.2% in men and 51.3% in women and increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD. The study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX model. INTRODUCTION: Switzerland belongs to high-risk countries for osteoporosis. Based on demographic projections, burden will still increase. We assessed remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures by gender, age and BMD in order to populate FRAX algorithm for Switzerland. METHODS: Osteoporotic fracture incidence was determined from national epidemiological data for hospitalised fractured patients from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics in 2000 and results of a prospective Swiss cohort with almost 5,000 fractured patients in 2006. Validated BMD-associated fracture risk was used together with national death incidence and risk tables to determine remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year fracture probabilities for hip and major osteoporotic (hip, spine, distal radius, proximal humerus) fractures. RESULTS: Major osteoporotic fractures incidence was 773 and 2,078 per 100,000 men and women aged 50 and older. Corresponding remaining lifetime probabilities at age 50 were 20.2% and 51.3%. Hospitalisation for clinical spine, distal radius, and proximal humerus fractures reached 25%, 30% and 50%, respectively. Absolute 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD and was higher in women than in men. CONCLUSION: This study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX model, a country at highest risk for osteoporotic fractures.

Keywords
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Bone Density
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • Hip Fractures/*epidemiology/etiology
  • Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • *Life Expectancy
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Osteoporosis/complications/*epidemiology
  • Radius Fractures/*epidemiology/etiology
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Sex Factors
  • Shoulder Fractures/*epidemiology/etiology
  • Spinal Fractures/*epidemiology/etiology
  • Switzerland/epidemiology
  • Time Factors
Research group
Citation (ISO format)
LIPPUNER, K. et al. Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities of osteoporotic fracture in Swiss men and women. In: Osteoporosis international, 2009, vol. 20, n° 7, p. 1131–1140. doi: 10.1007/s00198-008-0779-8
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ISSN of the journal0937-941X
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