Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Testing for Threshold Effect in ARFIMA Models: Application to US Unemployment Rate Data

Publication date2008-01-01
First online date2008
Abstract

Macroeconomic time series often involve a threshold effect in their ARMA representation, and exhibit long memory features. In this paper we introduce a new class of threshold ARFIMA models to account for this. The threshold effect is introduced in the autoregressive and/or the fractional integration parameters, and can be tested for using LM tests. Monte Carlo experiments show the desirable finite sample size and power of the test with an exact maximum likelihood estimator of the long memory parameter. Simulations also show that a model selection strategy is available to discriminate between the competing threshold ARFIMA models. The methodology is applied to US unemployment rate data where we find a significant threshold effect in the ARFIMA representation and a better forecasting performance over TAR and symmetric ARFIMA models.

Keywords
  • Threshold ARFIMA
  • LM test
  • Asymmetric time series
Citation (ISO format)
LAHIANI, Amine, SCAILLET, Olivier. Testing for Threshold Effect in ARFIMA Models: Application to US Unemployment Rate Data. In: International journal of forecasting, 2008, p. 18. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.1311866
Main files (1)
Article (Published version)
accessLevelPublic
Identifiers
Additional URL for this publicationhttps://www.ssrn.com/abstract=1311866
Journal ISSN0169-2070
1views
0downloads

Technical informations

Creation12/08/2026 00:41:18
First validation12/08/2026 07:45:40
Update12/08/2026 07:45:40
Status update12/08/2026 07:45:40
Last indexation12/08/2026 07:45:41
All rights reserved by Archive ouverte UNIGE and the University of GenevaunigeBlack