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A Heterogeneous-Quantile Global VAR for Tail-Risk Transmission

Number of pages35
Publication date2026-01-01
First online date2026
Abstract

We develop a Heterogeneous-Quantile Global VAR (HQGVAR) that allows each country-variable pair to enter the global system at its own quantile level. We provide a global admissibility result showing that we can assemble row-specific quantile equations into a stable reduced-form system with a valid moving-average representation and generalized impulse responses. The framework preserves the main structure of the GVAR but extends it to distributionally heterogeneous macro-financial environments. We establish large-sample theory for estimation and inference, justify moving-block bootstrap procedures, and show that the common-quantile QGVAR is a nested special case. Monte Carlo evidence demonstrates that heterogeneous-quantile modeling is valuable in the presence of heavy-tailed shocks, state-dependent spillovers, and asynchronous country-specific stress. In an application to a 13-economy macro-financial system, we do not reject system-wide equality with the median benchmark, but we detect localized, benchmark-referenced differences in financially and monetarily relevant transmission channels. Additional convergence, robustness, and forecast-validation diagnostics support the empirical implementation.

Keywords
  • Tail risk
  • Global VAR
  • Quantile regression
  • International spillovers
Citation (ISO format)
N. KONSTANTAKIS, Konstantinos et al. A Heterogeneous-Quantile Global VAR for Tail-Risk Transmission. 2026 doi: 10.2139/ssrn.7017198
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Additional URL for this publicationhttps://www.ssrn.com/abstract=7017198
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Technical informations

Creation30/07/2026 00:33:41
First validation11/08/2026 09:35:41
Update11/08/2026 09:35:41
Status update11/08/2026 09:35:41
Last indexation11/08/2026 09:35:42
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