Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Clinical surveillance systems obscure the true cholera infection burden in an endemic region

Errata
  • In the version of the article initially published, National Institutes of Health grant K22AI168389 was missing from the acknowledgements.
  • DOI : 10.1038/s41591-024-03177-2
  • PMID : 38982299
Published inNature medicine, vol. 30, no. 3, p. 888-895
Publication date2024-03
First online date2024-02-20
Abstract

Our understanding of cholera transmission and burden largely relies on clinic-based surveillance, which can obscure trends, bias burden estimates and limit the impact of targeted cholera-prevention measures. Serological surveillance provides a complementary approach to monitoring infections, although the link between serologically derived infections and medically attended disease incidence-shaped by immunological, behavioral and clinical factors-remains poorly understood. We unravel this cascade in a cholera-endemic Bangladeshi community by integrating clinic-based surveillance, healthcare-seeking and longitudinal serological data through statistical modeling. Combining the serological trajectories with a reconstructed incidence timeline of symptomatic cholera, we estimated an annual Vibrio cholerae O1 infection incidence rate of 535 per 1,000 population (95% credible interval 514-556), with incidence increasing by age group. Clinic-based surveillance alone underestimated the number of infections and reported cases were not consistently correlated with infection timing. Of the infections, 4 in 3,280 resulted in symptoms, only 1 of which was reported through the surveillance system. These results impart insights into cholera transmission dynamics and burden in the epicenter of the seventh cholera pandemic, where >50% of our study population had an annual V. cholerae O1 infection, and emphasize the potential for a biased view of disease burden and infection risk when depending solely on clinical surveillance data.

Keywords
  • Cholera / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Vibrio cholerae
Funding
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [INV-021879]
  • U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | National Institutes of Health [R01-AI135115]
  • NIAID NIH HHS [R01 AI135115]
Citation (ISO format)
HEGDE, Sonia T et al. Clinical surveillance systems obscure the true cholera infection burden in an endemic region. In: Nature medicine, 2024, vol. 30, n° 3, p. 888–895. doi: 10.1038/s41591-024-02810-4
Main files (1)
Article (Published version)
Secondary files (2)
Supplemental data
accessLevelPublic
Supplemental data
accessLevelPublic
Updates (1)
Addendum
Identifiers
Additional URL for this publicationhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-02810-4
Journal ISSN2709-586X
2views
0downloads

Technical informations

Creation09/07/2026 08:03:56
First validation03/08/2026 11:19:02
Update03/08/2026 12:46:11
Status update03/08/2026 12:46:11
Last indexation03/08/2026 12:46:13
All rights reserved by Archive ouverte UNIGE and the University of GenevaunigeBlack