Scientific article
OA Policy
English

A scenario modeling pipeline for COVID-19 emergency planning

Published inScientific reports, vol. 11, no. 1, 7534
Publication date2021-04-06
First online date2021-04-06
Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused strain on health systems worldwide due to its high mortality rate and the large portion of cases requiring critical care and mechanical ventilation. During these uncertain times, public health decision makers, from city health departments to federal agencies, sought the use of epidemiological models for decision support in allocating resources, developing non-pharmaceutical interventions, and characterizing the dynamics of COVID-19 in their jurisdictions. In response, we developed a flexible scenario modeling pipeline that could quickly tailor models for decision makers seeking to compare projections of epidemic trajectories and healthcare impacts from multiple intervention scenarios in different locations. Here, we present the components and configurable features of the COVID Scenario Pipeline, with a vignette detailing its current use. We also present model limitations and active areas of development to meet ever-changing decision maker needs.

Keywords
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / transmission
  • Computer Simulation
  • Epidemics
  • Humans
  • Population Dynamics
  • Public Health
  • Risk
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification
  • Software
Affiliation entities Not a UNIGE publication
Funding
Citation (ISO format)
LEMAITRE, Joseph C et al. A scenario modeling pipeline for COVID-19 emergency planning. In: Scientific reports, 2021, vol. 11, n° 1, p. 7534. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86811-0
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accessLevelPublic
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Additional URL for this publicationhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-86811-0
Journal ISSN2045-2322
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Technical informations

Creation30/09/2025 16:47:00
First validation15/07/2026 09:22:46
Update15/07/2026 09:22:46
Status update15/07/2026 09:22:46
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