Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Regional planning of post-war electricity infrastructure in Ukraine

Published inEnergy strategy reviews, vol. 65, 102250
Publication date2026-05
First online date2026-05-06
Abstract

In light of widely damaged electricity infrastructure and exacerbated regional inequalities in Ukraine, there is a pressing imperative to devise meticulous post-war reconstruction strategies. Leveraging high-resolution electricity system modeling and scenario analysis, this study investigates the future of Ukraine's electricity sector across 24 subnational regions, considering the extent of damage and ambitious national targets. Notably, while overall electricity demand in 2035 is projected to rise from the pre-war level, this study suggests no growth is needed in hard coal or nuclear power capacities across all regions. Instead, innovations such as currently underutilized bioenergy and wind power, as well as modern gas capacities can replace hard coal. Along with transmission and interconnection capacities, electricity storage and especially pumped hydropower storage need to expand to balance renewable and nuclear power generation. The findings and the robustness of the identified regional clusters is further validated in a sensitivity analysis. The estimation of various environmental, economic, and social impacts across subnational regions indicates that mere cost efficiency should not solely dictate policy: a holistic approach is necessary to foster regional equity and robust green transition.

Keywords
  • Ukraine
  • Decarbonization
  • Electricity system
  • Modeling
  • Subnational analysis
  • Post-war reconstruction
Funding
Citation (ISO format)
SOTNYK, Iryna, SASSE, Jan-Philipp, TRUTNEVYTE, Evelina. Regional planning of post-war electricity infrastructure in Ukraine. In: Energy strategy reviews, 2026, vol. 65, p. 102250. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102250
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Article (Published version)
Identifiers
Journal ISSN2211-467X
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