Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Exploring patterns of distributional justice in global climate change mitigation scenarios

Published innpj climate action, vol. 5, no. 1
First online date2026-03-31
Abstract

Collective climate action hinges on the distribution of benefits and burdens of climate change mitigation. Yet assumptions relevant to distributional justice are frequently made only implicitly in climate change mitigation scenarios. Here, we introduce the patterns of the distributional justice framework that operationalize philosophical justice theories as quantitative requirements for scenario trajectories. We then apply this framework to the IPCC AR6 scenario database to assess the distributional implications of global climate change mitigation scenarios across world regions. Focusing on scenario variables related to energy and meat consumption, we found a diversity of patterns of justice across scenario characteristics. The prioritarian perspective, which prioritizes improvements to those currently worse off, emerged as the most dominant pattern of justice. By contrast, futures with limited or reduced energy and meat consumption were the least represented in the database. Our research further indicates that most scenarios consistent with patterns of justice do not explicitly aim to model more just futures, suggesting that underlying scenario narratives-most often SSP2-largely determine the distributional outcomes. We therefore propose a stakeholder engagement strategy to make distributional justice assumptions in scenario development ex-ante more diverse and transparent. Overall, this study provides a practical avenue for developing justice-conscious scenarios that may be more likely to motivate collective climate action.

Keywords
  • Climate sciences
  • Environmental social sciences
Funding
  • Imperial College London
  • European Commission - GENIE: GeoEngineering and NegatIve Emissions pathways in Europe [951542]
  • European Commission - Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions [821471]
  • European Commission - ENABLING AND LEVERAGING CLIMATE ACTION TOWARDS NET-ZERO EMISSIONS [101056873]
  • European Commission - Bridging current knowledge gaps to enable the UPTAKE of carbon dioxide removal methods [101081521]
Citation (ISO format)
SCHEIFINGER, Karl et al. Exploring patterns of distributional justice in global climate change mitigation scenarios. In: npj climate action, 2026, vol. 5, n° 1. doi: 10.1038/s44168-026-00364-4
Main files (1)
Article (Published version)
Identifiers
Additional URL for this publicationhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-026-00364-4
Journal ISSN2731-9814
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