Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Causal modelling of heavy-tailed variables and confounders with application to river flow

Published inExtremes, vol. 26, no. 3, p. 573-594
Publication date2023-09
First online date2022-12-17
Abstract

Confounding variables are a recurrent challenge for causal discovery and inference. In many situations, complex causal mechanisms only manifest themselves in extreme events, or take simpler forms in the extremes. Stimulated by data on extreme river flows and precipitation, we introduce a new causal discovery methodology for heavy-tailed variables that allows the effect of a known potential confounder to be almost entirely removed when the variables have comparable tails, and also decreases it sufficiently to enable correct causal inference when the confounder has a heavier tail. We also introduce a new parametric estimator for the existing causal tail coefficient and a permutation test. Simulations show that the methods work well and the ideas are applied to the motivating dataset. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10687-022-00456-4.

Keywords
  • Causal tail coefficient
  • Causation
  • Confounder
  • Extreme value statistics
  • Generalized Pareto distribution
Citation (ISO format)
PASCHE, Olivier Colin, CHAVEZ-DEMOULIN, Valérie, DAVISON, Anthony C. Causal modelling of heavy-tailed variables and confounders with application to river flow. In: Extremes, 2023, vol. 26, n° 3, p. 573–594. doi: 10.1007/s10687-022-00456-4
Main files (1)
Article (Published version)
accessLevelPublic
Identifiers
Additional URL for this publicationhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10687-022-00456-4
Journal ISSN1386-1999
4views
6downloads

Technical informations

Creation18/03/2026 14:35:39
First validation08/04/2026 06:56:14
Update23/04/2026 07:02:06
Status update23/04/2026 07:02:06
Last indexation23/04/2026 07:02:08
All rights reserved by Archive ouverte UNIGE and the University of GenevaunigeBlack