The paper aims to develop and adapt an econometric model for assessing and forecasting the impact of household energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment on reducing energy poverty in Ukraine. Due to the lack of updated statistical data after 2022 caused by the war, the adapted model was tested using pre-war data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the World Bank for 2002–2021. As access to some pre-war datasets was also restricted for security reasons in Ukraine, proxy indicators were applied, allowing adaptation to limited information conditions. The modeling results showed that a 1,000 USD increase in GDP per capita reduces the share of the population living below the national poverty line and, accordingly, the energy-poor population, by 3%. Conversely, a 1% increase in gross capital formation raises the energy poverty level by 0.5%, indicating no direct impact of investment in physical capital, including expenses on energy-efficiency measures, on household welfare. Household expenditures on utilities and the share of renewable energy in total energy consumption were found to be statistically insignificant. The study confirms that household income remains the dominant determinant of energy poverty, while improvements in energy efficiency and renewable energy development play supportive but not yet decisive roles. These findings highlight the need to integrate social and energy policies to raise household incomes, improve access to renewable technologies, and promote energy efficiency measures. The developed model offers a tool for enhancing state policies to alleviate energy poverty under wartime constraints and in post-war recovery. AcknowledgmentsThis study was funded by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine within the project “Formation of economic mechanisms to increase energy efficiency and provide sustainable development of renewable energy in Ukraine’s households” (No. 0122U001233).