Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Cost-optimal vs. policy-driven scenarios for a decarbonised European energy system

Published inEnvironmental research letters, vol. 21, no. 3, 034023
Publication date2026-02-14
First online date2026-02-10
Abstract

The European Union’s (EU) climate strategy, anchored in the European Green Deal, the Fit-for-55 package, and the updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), requires a rapid transformation of the energy system to meet the legally binding target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and a 55% reduction by 2030 relative to 1990 levels. Yet, how national plans align with EU-wide ambition, alongside the implications for investment, infrastructure, and power-system operation, remain insufficiently assessed. We address this gap by linking an EU-specific implementation of a prominent integrated assessment model with Member State-level disaggregation (GCAM-Europe) with a higher-resolution European electricity system model (EXPANSE). This modelling framework captures national heterogeneity, sectoral detail, and spatiotemporal variability in electricity demand, renewable supply, and storage, enabling the assessment of grid investments and infrastructure. We analyse four scenarios representing EU-wide (Fit-for-55) or national (NECP) targets, implemented through explicit policies ( POLICY ) or cost-optimal carbon caps ( COST_OPTIMAL ). Results show all scenarios achieve the −55% fossil CO 2 reduction by 2030, with the electricity sector driving the largest chunk. Renewable energy nearly doubles, with POLICY scenarios accelerating electrification and heat pump deployment, while COST_OPTIMAL scenarios leaning more on biofuels. Efficiency targets are partially met, with POLICY scenarios distributing savings more evenly across Member States compared to concentrated reductions of COST_OPTIMAL scenarios. By 2035, power system transformation diverges strongly: COST_OPTIMAL scenarios expand ~1250 GW of new capacity, concentrated in few resource-rich regions, while POLICY scenarios reach ~1750 GW with broader spatial distribution, requiring higher investments in renewables and grids. Average wholesale electricity prices are higher and more heterogeneous under POLICY scenarios, reflecting carbon costs, transmission bottlenecks, and reliance on fossil backup. Results highlight trade-offs between economic efficiency and equitable burden-sharing, underscoring the importance of coordinated EU governance, infrastructure planning, and complementary policies to balance cost-effectiveness with political feasibility and social acceptance.

Keywords
  • Integrated assessment modelling
  • Electricity system modelling
  • National energy and climate plans
  • Fit-for-55
  • European climate policy
Funding
  • European Commission - Expanding Integrated Assessment Modelling: Comprehensive and Comprehensible Science for Sustainable, Co-Created Climate Action [101056306]
  • European Commission - Delivering the next generation of open Integrated Assessment MOdels for Net-zero, sustainable Development [101081179]
  • European Commission - Accelerating Climate Action: Navigating towards a Low-Emissions, Climate-Resilient Future [101184374]
  • European Commission - NET ZERO PATHWAY RESEARCH THROUGH INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL ADVANCEMENTS [101081604]
Citation (ISO format)
FRILINGOU, Natasha et al. Cost-optimal vs. policy-driven scenarios for a decarbonised European energy system. In: Environmental research letters, 2026, vol. 21, n° 3, p. 034023. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae3f45
Main files (1)
Article (Published version)
Identifiers
Journal ISSN1748-9326
36views
225downloads

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