Background: Long-term outcomes of lung transplantation (LTx) remain hampered by chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD). Matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) is a secretory endopeptidase identified as a key mediator in fibrosis processes associated with CLAD. The objective of this study was to investigate whether plasma MMP9 levels may be prognostic of CLAD development.

Methods: Participants were selected from the Cohort in Lung Transplantation (COLT) for which a biocollection was associated. We considered two time points, year 1 (Y1) and year 2 (Y2) post-transplantation, for plasma MMP-9 measurements. We analysed stable recipients at those time points, comparing those who would develop a CLAD within the 2 years following the measurement to those who would remain stable 2 years after.

Results: MMP-9 levels at Y1 were not significantly different between the CLAD and stable groups (230 ng/ml vs. 160 ng/ml, p = 0.4). For the Y2 analysis, 129 recipients were included, of whom 50 developed CLAD within 2 years and 79 remained stable within 2 years. MMP-9 plasma median concentrations were higher in recipients who then developed CLAD than in the stable group (230 ng/ml vs. 118 ng/ml, p = 0.003). In the multivariate analysis, the Y2 MMP-9 level was independently associated with CLAD, with an average increase of 150 ng/ml (95% CI [0-253], p = 0.05) compared to that in the stable group. The Y2 ROC curve revealed a discriminating capacity of blood MMP-9 with an area under the curve of 66%.

Conclusion: Plasmatic MMP-9 levels measured 2 years after lung transplantation have prognostic value for CLAD.