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Random Walk conditioned to stay above a non-flat floor: curvature effects

Number of pages34
Publication date2025-11-12
First online date2025-11-12
Abstract

Let h:[0,1]→R be C2 and such that sup[0,1] h'' < 0. For a (large) positive integer n, set hn(k) = n h(k/n) for any k in {0,...,n}. We consider a random walk (S_k)k\geq 0 with i.i.d. centred increments having some finite exponential moments. We are interested in the event {S ≥ hn} = {Sk ≥ hn(k) for all k in {0,...,n}}. It is well known that P(S ≥ hn | S0=0, Sn= [hn(n)]) = exp(-n ∫[0,1] I(h'(s)) ds + o(n)), where I is the Legendre-Fenchel transform of the log-moment generating function associated to the increments. We first prove that the leading correction is of order exp(-Θ(n1/3)). We then turn our attention to the conditional random walk measure Phn = P( · | S ≥ hn, S0=0, Sn=[hn(n)]). We prove that the one-point tails are of the form Phn (Sk ≥ hn(k) + t n1/3) = exp(-Θ(t3/2)) for all t<nβ for any β in (0,1/6). Moreover, we prove that, for any r ≥ 1, Ehn((Sk-hn(k))r) = Θ(nr/3) and Varhn(Sk) = Θ(n2/3), for all k far enough from 0 and n. In addition, we show that Covhn(Sk,Sl) ≤ O(n2/3) exp(-O(|l-k|/n2/3)) for all k,l not too close to 0 and n.

Citation (ISO format)
OTT, Sébastien, VELENIK, Yvan. Random Walk conditioned to stay above a non-flat floor: curvature effects. 2025, p. 34.
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