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Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness

Checchi, Francesco
Filipe, João A N.
Haydon, Daniel T.
Chandramohan, Daniel
Published in BMC Infectious Diseases. 2008, vol. 8, p. 16
Abstract BACKGROUND: The durations of untreated stage 1 (early stage, haemo-lymphatic) and stage 2 (late stage, meningo-encephalitic) human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) due to Trypanosoma brucei gambiense are poorly quantified, but key to predicting the impact of screening on transmission. Here, we outline a method to estimate these parameters. METHODS: We first model the duration of stage 1 through survival analysis of untreated serological suspects detected during Médecins Sans Frontières interventions in Uganda and Sudan. We then deduce the duration of stage 2 based on the stage 1 to stage 2 ratio observed during active case detection in villages within the same sites. RESULTS: Survival in stage 1 appears to decay exponentially (daily rate = 0.0019; mean stage 1 duration = 526 days [95%CI 357 to 833]), possibly explaining past reports of abnormally long duration. Assuming epidemiological equilibrium, we estimate a similar duration of stage 2 (500 days [95%CI 345 to 769]), for a total of nearly three years in the absence of treatment. CONCLUSION: Robust estimates of these basic epidemiological parameters are essential to formulating a quantitative understanding of sleeping sickness dynamics, and will facilitate the evaluation of different possible control strategies.
Keywords AdolescentAdultAnimalsChildDisease ProgressionFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansMalePrevalenceSudan/epidemiologyTrypanosoma brucei gambienseTrypanosomiasis, African/diagnosis/epidemiologyUganda/epidemiology
PMID: 18261232
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Research group Groupe Jean-Michel Gaspoz (23)
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CHECCHI, Francesco et al. Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness. In: BMC Infectious Diseases, 2008, vol. 8, p. 16. https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:1880

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Deposited on : 2009-06-04

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