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English

Optimal Maximin GMM Tests for Sphericity in Latent Factor Analysis of Short Panels

Number of pages67
First online date2025-03-31
Abstract

We derive optimal maximin tests for parametric hypotheses in short panels with latent common factors. We rely on a Generalized Method of Moments setting with optimal weighting under a large cross-sectional dimension n and a fixed time series dimension T . We outline the asymptotic distributions of the estimators as well as the asymptotic maximin optimality of the Wald, Lagrange Multiplier, and Likelihood Ratio-type tests. The characterisation of optimality relies on finding the limit Gaussian experiment in strongly identified GMM models under a block-dependence structure and unobserved heterogeneity. We reject sphericity of idiosyncratic errors in an empirical application to a large cross-section of U.S. stocks, which casts doubt on the validity of routinely applying Principal Component Analysis to short panels of monthly financial returns.

Keywords
  • Latent factor analysis
  • Generalized Method of Moments
  • Maximin test
  • Gaussian experiment
  • Fixed effects
  • Panel data
  • Sphericity
  • Large n and fixed T asymptotics
  • Equity returns
Citation (ISO format)
FORTIN, Alain-Philippe, GAGLIARDINI, Patrick, SCAILLET, Olivier. Optimal Maximin GMM Tests for Sphericity in Latent Factor Analysis of Short Panels. 2025, p. 67. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.5169343
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Creation31/03/2025 12:33:09
First validation02/04/2025 09:08:06
Update05/01/2026 14:38:21
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