The structural contradiction of China's dual economy is a key problem restricting economic development. How to effectively promote the smooth transformation of the dual economy has become an important task for the sustainable development of China's economy. Bank credit plays a vital role in China's economic development. However, the existing theories have not done in-depth and systematic research on bank credit under the background of dual economic transformation (DET). Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to systematically study the impact of bank credit on China's DET.
This paper builds a theoretical analysis framework for the internal relationship between bank credit and DET, and explores the mechanism and theoretical model of the impact of bank credit on DET. Under the background of the dual economic structure, taking the relationship between bank credit and DET as the research object, analyzing the evolution characteristics of China's bank credit and DET, empirically testing the influence and characteristics of bank credit on China's DET from the provincial level, and proposing optimization policy suggestions for bank credit to promote DET.
The study found that the strength of China's dual economic structure has weakened in recent years. While the economic development has grown significantly, the scale of bank credit and the proportion of credit in the agricultural sector have increased, but the efficiency of financial institutions in converting deposits into loans has declined. From a national view, by increasing the scale of bank credit and the economic growth rate, as well as increasing the efficiency of converting bank deposits into investment, will weaken the dual economic structure, but increasing the proportion of credit in the agricultural sector lead the opposite way. From the region view, bank credit in Beijing has a significant role in promoting DET, while the central, western and northeastern regions have the opposite effect. Judging from the influencing factors of bank credit, the credit scale, credit structure, and credit efficiency of some regions can significantly improve the DET, but some regions have a significant negative impact on the DET.
This paper puts forward several countermeasures to optimize bank credit and promote DET, such as rational allocation of credit scale, continuous optimization of credit structure, improvement of credit fund allocation efficiency, establishment of credit rating system, improvement of credit system in rural areas, improvement of financial technology level and establishment of new financial institutions.
