Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Analysis of global routine immunisation coverage shows disruption and stagnation during the first two-years of the COVID-19 pandemic with tentative recovery in 2022

Published inVaccine. X, vol. 15, 100383
Publication date2023-12
First online date2023-09-06
Abstract

Whilst it is now widely recognised that routine immunisation (RI) was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and further so in 2021, the extent of continued interruptions in 2022 and/or rebounds to previous trends remains unclear. We modelled country-specific RI trends using validated estimates of national coverage from the World Health Organisation and United Nation Children's Fund for 182 countries (accounting for > 97% of children globally), to project expected diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis-containing vaccine first-dose (DTP1), third-dose (DTP3) and measles-containing vaccine first-dose (MCV1) coverage for 2020-2022 based on pre-pandemic trends (from 2000 to 2019). We provide further evidence of peak pandemic immunisation disruption in 2021, followed by tentative recovery in 2022. We report a 3.4% (95 %CI: [2.5%; 4.4%]) decline in global DTP3 coverage in 2021 compared to 2000-2019 trends, from an expected 89.8% to reported 86.4%. This coverage gap reduced to a 2.7% (95 %CI: [1.8%; 3.6%]) decline in 2022, with reported coverage rising to 87.2%. Similar results were seen for DTP1 and MCV1. Whilst partial rebounds are encouraging, global coverage decline translates to a 17-year setback in RI to 2005 levels, and the majority of countries retain coverage at or lower than pre-pandemic levels. The Americas, Africa, and Asia were the most impacted regions; and low- and middle-income countries the most affected income groups. The number of annual Zero Dose (ZD) children - indicating those receiving no immunisations - increased from 12.1 million (M) globally in 2019 to a peak of 16.7 M in 2021, then reduced to 13.1 M in 2022. Overall, we estimate an excess of 8.8 M ZD children cumulatively in 2020-2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels. This work can be used as an objective baseline to inform future interventions to prioritise and target interventions, and facilitate catch-up of growing populations of under- and un-immunised children.

Keywords
  • COVID-19
  • Coverage
  • Decline
  • Global
  • Global health
  • Immunisation
  • Modelling
  • Pandemic
  • Recovery
  • Routine immunisation
  • Time series
  • Vaccine
Citation (ISO format)
EVANS, Bethany et al. Analysis of global routine immunisation coverage shows disruption and stagnation during the first two-years of the COVID-19 pandemic with tentative recovery in 2022. In: Vaccine. X, 2023, vol. 15, p. 100383. doi: 10.1016/j.jvacx.2023.100383
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Identifiers
Journal ISSN2590-1362
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Technical informations

Creation15/05/2024 09:06:26
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Update time10/02/2026 08:04:56
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