Background and purpose: We aimed to evaluate the long-term predictive value of radiographic abnormality and/or hip pain assessed 5 years following primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and the occurrence of revision for aseptic loosening between 5 and 25 years postoperatively.

Patients and methods: We included all primary THAs performed between 1996 and 2011 (same uncemented cup, polyethylene-ceramic bearing, 28 mm head, cemented stem) and prospectively enrolled in the institutional registry, for whom baseline and follow-up radiographs were available. At 5 years radiographically we assessed femoral osteolysis and/or stem migration. Pain was evaluated with the Harris Hip pain subscore. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox regression analyses were performed.

Results: 1,317 primary THAs were included. 25 THAs (2%) were revised for aseptic stem loosening. Any abnormal radiographic sign at 5 years was present in 191 THAs (14%). Occasional hip pain was reported by 20% and slight to severe pain by 12% of patients at 5 years. In patients < 60 years, 10 of the 12 later revised for aseptic stem loosening had abnormal radiographs at 5 years vs. 5 of the 13 later revised in those ≥ 60 years. Hazard ratios (HR) were 34 (95% confidence interval [CI] 7-155) in younger vs. 4 (CI 1-11) in the older group. HR for association of hip pain at 5 years with future revision was 3 (CI 1-5).

Conclusion: The presence of abnormal radiographic signs 5 years after THA was strongly associated with later revision for aseptic stem loosening, especially in patients < 60 years. The association between pain at 5 years and future revision was much weaker.