Scientific article
Open access

Estimating a Time-Varying Distribution-Led Regime

Published inStructural change and economic dynamics, vol. 68, p. 163-176
Publication date2024-03

This paper estimates the distribution-led regime of the US economy for the period 1947–2019. We use a time

varying parameter model, which allows for continuous changes in the regime over time. To the best of our

knowledge this is the first paper that has attempted to do this. This innovation is important, because there is no

reason to expect that the regime of the US economy (or any economy for that matter) will remain constant over

time. On the contrary, there are significant reasons that point to changes in the regime. We find that the US

economy became more profit-led in the first postwar decades until the 1970s and has become less profit-led

since. In the last fifteen years of our sample the effect of changes in distribution on economic activity is statis-

tically insignificant.

  • Wage
  • Led Profit
  • Led Distribution Growth Time
  • Varying Parameters (VAR)
Citation (ISO format)
CARRILLO-MALDONADO, Paul, NIKIFOROS, Michalis. Estimating a Time-Varying Distribution-Led Regime. In: Structural change and economic dynamics, 2024, vol. 68, p. 163–176. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2023.10.013
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Article (Published version)
ISSN of the journal0954-349X

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