Scientific article
Open access

Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change

Published inNature communications, vol. 11, no. 1, 2130
Publication date2020-05-01
First online date2020-05-01

Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti , an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950–2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2–4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector’s global invasion potential.

Affiliation Not a UNIGE publication
  • Medical Research Council - [MR/R015600/1]
Citation (ISO format)
IWAMURA, Takuya, GUZMAN-HOLST, Adriana, MURRAY, Kris A. Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector<i> Aedes aegypti</i> under climate change. In: Nature communications, 2020, vol. 11, n° 1, p. 2130. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4
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Article (Published version)
ISSN of the journal2041-1723

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