Scientific article
Open access

Deforestation for oil palm increases microclimate suitability for the development of the disease vector Aedes albopictus

Published inScientific reports, vol. 13, no. 1, 9514
Publication date2023-06-12
First online date2023-06-12

A major trade-off of land-use change is the potential for increased risk of infectious diseases, a.o. through impacting disease vector life-cycles. Evaluating the public health implications of land-use conversions requires spatially detailed modelling linking land-use to vector ecology. Here, we estimate the impact of deforestation for oil palm cultivation on the number of life-cycle completions of Aedes albopictus via its impact on local microclimates. We apply a recently developed mechanistic phenology model to a fine-scaled (50-m resolution) microclimate dataset that includes daily temperature, rainfall and evaporation. Results of this combined model indicate that the conversion from lowland rainforest to plantations increases suitability for A. albopictus development by 10.8%, moderated to 4.7% with oil palm growth to maturity. Deforestation followed by typical plantation planting-maturation-clearance-replanting cycles is predicted to create pulses of high development suitability. Our results highlight the need to explore sustainable land-use scenarios that resolve conflicts between agricultural and human health objectives.

  • UK Research and Innovation - Forecasting the impacts of drought on human-modified tropical forests by integrating models with data [NE/S01537X/1]
  • Medical Research Council - [MR/R0156600/1]
Citation (ISO format)
SAAGER, E. S. et al. Deforestation for oil palm increases microclimate suitability for the development of the disease vector <i>Aedes albopictus</i>. In: Scientific reports, 2023, vol. 13, n° 1, p. 9514. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-35452-6
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Article (Published version)
ISSN of the journal2045-2322

Technical informations

Creation11/13/2023 2:20:51 PM
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