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Working paper
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English

Estimating a Time-Varying Distribution-Led Regime

Number of pages31
Collection
  • Working Papers of the Department of History, Economics and Society – Political economy; 02/2023
First online date2023-02-13
Abstract

This paper estimates the distribution-led regime of the US economy for the period 1947–2019. We use a time varying parameter model, which allows for continuous changes in the regime over time. To the best of our knowledge this is the first paper that has attempted to do this. This innovation is important, because there is no reason to expect that the regime of the US economy (or any economy for that matter) will remain constant over time. On the contrary, there are significant reasons that point to changes in the regime. We find that the US economy became more profit-led in the first postwar decades until the 1970s and has become less profit-led since; it is slightly wage-led over the last fifteen years, although this wage-ledness is not always statistically significant.

eng
Keywords
  • Wage-led
  • Profit-led
  • Distribution
  • Growth
  • Time-Varying Parameters (VAR)
Citation (ISO format)
CARRILLO-MALDONADO, Paul, NIKIFOROS, Michalis. Estimating a Time-Varying Distribution-Led Regime. 2023
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Working paper
accessLevelPublic
Identifiers
  • PID : unige:166851
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Technical informations

Creation02/13/2023 2:13:00 PM
First validation02/13/2023 2:13:00 PM
Update time03/16/2023 10:37:50 AM
Status update03/16/2023 10:37:50 AM
Last indexation02/01/2024 9:34:56 AM
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