Crystal ball to foresee energy technology progress?

Trutnevyte, Evelina; Zielonka, Nik; Wen, Xin

doi:10.1016/j.joule.2022.07.007

Scientific article

English

Crystal ball to foresee energy technology progress?

ContributorsTrutnevyte, Evelina

; Zielonka, Nik

; Wen, Xin

Published inJoule, vol. 6, no. 9, p. 1969-1970

First online date2022-09-21

Abstract

In this issue of Joule, Way et al. use data-driven probabilistic technology forecasts to show that rapid global decarbonization until 2070 is likely to have lower costs than no decarbonization. Besides good news for climate policy, Way et al. reopen the discussion on probabilistic methods in energy and integrated assessment modeling.

Keywords

Technological progress
Technology cost forecasting
Experience curves
Wright's law
Energy technology innovation
Energy transition costs
Decarbonization
Probabilistic forecasting
Climate change mitigation

Affiliation entities

Research groups

Funding

Swiss Federal Office of Energy - SWEET project SURE
Swiss National Science Foundation - Accuracy of long-range national energy projections (ACCURACY) [PCEGP1_186834]

Citation (ISO format)

TRUTNEVYTE, Evelina, ZIELONKA, Nik, WEN, Xin. Crystal ball to foresee energy technology progress? In: Joule, 2022, vol. 6, n° 9, p. 1969–1970. doi: 10.1016/j.joule.2022.07.007

Article (Published version)

Article (Accepted version)

Identifiers

PID : unige:163602
DOI : 10.1016/j.joule.2022.07.007

Journal ISSN2542-4351

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Creation09/21/2022 2:57:00 PM

First validation09/21/2022 2:57:00 PM

Update time04/04/2025 1:02:28 PM

Status update09/25/2023 9:39:19 AM

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Crystal ball to foresee energy technology progress?

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