Objective: To investigate whether spinal radiographic progression relates to structural damage at the sacroiliac level in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA).

Methods: Patients classified as nonradiographic (nr-) and radiographic (r-) axSpA in the Swiss Clinical Quality Management cohort with radiographs performed every 2 years, scored according to the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spine Score (mSASSS), were included. The relationship between classification status and spinal progression during 2 years was investigated using binomial generalized estimating equations models with adjustment for sex, ankylosing spondylitis disease activity score (ASDAS) and tumour necrosis factor inhibitor treatment. Baseline spinal damage was considered an intermediate variable and included in sensitivity analyses.

Results: In total, 88 nr-axSpA and 418 r-axSpA patients contributed to data for 725 radiographic intervals. R-axSpA patients were more frequently male, had a longer disease duration and higher structural damage at baseline. Mean (SD) mSASSS change over 2 years was 0.16 (0.62) units in nr-axSpA and 0.92 (2.78) units in r-axSpA, p = 0.01. Nr-axSpA was associated with a significantly lower progression in 2 years (defined as an increase in ≥2 mSASSS units) in adjusted analyses (OR 0.33, 95%CI 0.13; 0.83), confirmed with progression defined as the formation of ≥1 syndesmophyte. Mediation analyses revealed that sacroiliitis exerted its effect on spinal progression indirectly by being associated with the appearance of a first syndesmophyte (OR 0.09, 95%CI 0.02; 0.36 for nr-axSpA vs r-axSpA). Baseline syndesmophytes were predictors of further progression.

Conclusion: Spinal structural damage is mainly restricted to patients with r-axSpA, leading to relevant prognostic and therapeutic implications.