Introduction: The risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) after combined oral contraceptive (COC) use is variably reported. We assessed the long-term risk of recurrent VTE in women on COC at the time of a first VTE, in comparison to women without COC use. Our secondary aim assessed the impact of COC use on the recurrent VTE risk in high-risk and low-risk hyperpigmentation, edema, or redness in either leg; D-dimer level ≥250 μg/L; obesity with body mass index ≥30; or older age, ≥65 years (HERDOO2) subgroups.

Methods: The REVERSE cohort study derived the HERDOO2 clinical decision rule to predict recurrent VTE in patients who discontinued anticoagulation after 5-7 months for a first unprovoked VTE. Incidence rates of recurrent VTE among women with and without COC exposure were calculated as the number of recurrent VTE over the number of person-years of follow-up, and Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare risks between groups.

Results: The risk of recurrent VTE among COC users was 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.3-2.9) per patient-year as compared with 3.2% per patient-year (95% CI 2.4-4.3) among nonusers (hazard ratio 0.37; 95% CI 0.1-1.0). Women who were COC users and high risk by HERDOO2 score had a recurrence rate of 3.5% (95% CI 0.4-12.5) compared with 6.1% (95% CI 4.3-8.5) among women who were non-COC users and at high risk by HERDOO2 score (HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.1-2.5).

Conclusions: Women who were COC users at the time of an otherwise unprovoked VTE event had a lower VTE recurrence rate during long-term follow-up, compared with nonusers. The use of HERDOO2 rule may help identify higher risk women with COC use.