Scientific article
Open access

The effect of police on crime: Evidence from the 2014 World Cup in São Paulo

ContributorsMasiero, Ilaria
Published inEconomía, vol. 21, no. 1, p. 47-72
Publication date2020
First online date2020

I estimate the causal impact of police on crime, based on evidence from Brazil. To tackle reverse causality, I consider as a natural experiment the creation of a special police unit to intensify surveillance around a few tournament-related locations in São Paulo during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. To better isolate the specific impact of policing, I account for different ways in which the tournament may affect crime, namely, via fan concentration and voluntary incapacitation. Difference-in-differences estimates reveal that increased police presence leads to significant reductions in criminal activity. My estimate of the crime-police elasticity (−0.37) is close to figures obtained in previous studies, suggesting that this effect is robust across settings and remains stable even in a high-crime, weak-institutions context, as in the case of Brazil.

  • Police
  • Crime
  • Brazil
  • Natural experiment
Affiliation Not a UNIGE publication
Citation (ISO format)
MASIERO, Ilaria. The effect of police on crime: Evidence from the 2014 World Cup in São Paulo. In: Economía, 2020, vol. 21, n° 1, p. 47–72. doi: 10.1353/eco.2020.0006
Main files (1)
Article (Accepted version)
ISSN of the journal1529-7470

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