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Scientific article
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English

A Framework for Weather-Driven Dengue Virus Transmission Dynamics in Different Brazilian Regions

Publication date2021-09-09
First online date2021-09-09
Abstract

This study investigated a model to assess the role of climate fluctuations on dengue (DENV) dynamics from 2010 to 2019 in four Brazilian municipalities. The proposed transmission model was based on a preexisting SEI-SIR model, but also incorporates the vector vertical transmission and the vector's egg compartment, thus allowing rainfall to be introduced to modulate egg-hatching. Temperature and rainfall satellite data throughout the decade were used as climatic model inputs. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the role of each parameter. The model-simulated scenario was compared to the observed dengue incidence and the findings indicate that the model was able to capture the observed seasonal dengue incidence pattern with good accuracy until 2016, although higher deviations were observed from 2016 to 2019. The results further demonstrate that vertical transmission fluctuations can affect attack transmission rates and patterns, suggesting the need to investigate the contribution of vertical transmission to dengue transmission dynamics in future assessments. The improved understanding of the relationship between different environment variables and dengue transmission achieved by the proposed model can contribute to public health policies regarding mosquito-borne diseases.

eng
Keywords
  • Aedes aegypti
  • Dengue
  • Environment variables
  • Transmission model
  • Tropical diseases
Citation (ISO format)
ALVES, Leon Diniz, LANA, Raquel Martins, CODECO COELHO, Flavio. A Framework for Weather-Driven Dengue Virus Transmission Dynamics in Different Brazilian Regions. In: International journal of environmental research and public health, 2021, vol. 18, n° 18, p. 9493. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18189493
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Identifiers
ISSN of the journal1660-4601
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Technical informations

Creation10/03/2021 5:13:00 PM
First validation10/03/2021 5:13:00 PM
Update time03/16/2023 2:18:16 AM
Status update03/16/2023 2:18:15 AM
Last indexation01/29/2024 11:14:30 PM
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