Scientific article
Open access

Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries

Published inThe Lancet. Planetary health, vol. 5, no. 7, p. e446-e454
Publication date2021-07

Background: Europe has emerged as a major climate change hotspot, both in terms of an increase in seasonal averages and climate extremes. Projections of temperature-attributable mortality, however, have not been comprehensively reported for an extensive part of the continent. Therefore, we aim to estimate the future effect of climate change on temperature-attributable mortality across Europe.

Methods: We did a time series analysis study. We derived temperature-mortality associations by collecting daily temperature and all-cause mortality records of both urban and rural areas for the observational period between 1998 and 2012 from 147 regions in 16 European countries. We estimated the location-specific temperature-mortality relationships by using standard time series quasi-Poisson regression in conjunction with a distributed lag non-linear model. These associations were used to transform the daily temperature simulations from the climate models in the historical period (1971-2005) and scenario period (2006-2099) into projections of temperature-attributable mortality. We combined the resulting risk functions with daily time series of future temperatures simulated by four climate models (ie, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MIROC5) under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (ie, Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP]2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), providing projections of future mortality attributable fraction due to moderate and extreme cold and heat temperatures.

  • European Commission - european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts [956396]
  • European Commission - Signs of Early Adaptation to Climate Change [865564]
  • European Commission - Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate [727852]
  • European Commission - Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Reanalyses [607193]
Citation (ISO format)
MARTÍNEZ-SOLANAS, Èrica et al. Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries. In: The Lancet. Planetary health, 2021, vol. 5, n° 7, p. e446–e454. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00150-9
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ISSN of the journal2542-5196

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Creation12/03/2021 3:51:00 PM
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