Scientific article

Decision analysis for sustainable development: The case of renewable energy planning under uncertainty

Publication date2020

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to aid decision-making for sustainable development. However, although uncertainty is present in all decision environments, dealing with incomplete and vague information in decision analysis remains a challenge. Our objective is to simplify the incorporation of uncertainty in the scoring of alternatives in MCDA processes. We present a modified ELimination and Choice Translating REality (ELECTRE) III model, in which the uncertainty in the performance scores is expressed as lower/upper bounds and then added to the model's discrimination thresholds. Unlike other uncertainty approaches developed in the literature (such as those based on fuzzy set theory), our approach does not require additional knowledge apart from understanding the ELECTRE III model. To test its validity and suitability, we apply it for the evaluation of renewable energy resources for Turkey – hydro, wind, geothermal, solar, and biomass – under five main criteria: technological, technical, economic, environmental, and socio-politic. Our results indicate that wind energy is the best alternative for Turkey, followed by solar energy, which is in line with country's Vision 2023 energy targets.

  • OR in developing countries
  • Uncertainty
  • Multiple criteria analysis
  • Renewable Energy
Affiliation Not a UNIGE publication
Citation (ISO format)
EZBAKHE, Fatine, PÉREZ-FOGUET, Agustí. Decision analysis for sustainable development: The case of renewable energy planning under uncertainty. In: European Journal of Operational Research, 2020. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.02.037
Main files (1)
Article (Published version)
ISSN of the journal0377-2217

Technical informations

Creation10/16/2020 2:22:00 PM
First validation10/16/2020 2:22:00 PM
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