Scientific article
OA Policy
French

A spatio-temporal analysis of migration

ContributorsMilivinti, Alice
Published inEmpirical Economics, vol. 57, no. 4, p. 1411-1442
Publication date2019
Abstract

Migration is a space- and time-dependent phenomenon. Traditional geographical migration models have considered the distance between source and destination countries or have applied suitable normalizations to treat the correlation among migratory flows. To disentangle cross-sectional dependence, spatial correlation is explored in mainly two directions. First, migratory flows from “neighbouring” countries are considered to be directly interconnected. Second, a set for exogenous drivers are allowed to be correlated among the different economic units. Swiss immigration, from 153 source countries from 1981 to 2011, is modelled using a dynamic spatial econometric model able to capture both path-dependency and spatial interactions. An out-of-sample forecasting, performed to assess the model's accuracy, confirms the crucial role played by the spatial terms over the dynamic ones.

Citation (ISO format)
MILIVINTI, Alice. A spatio-temporal analysis of migration. In: Empirical Economics, 2019, vol. 57, n° 4, p. 1411–1442. doi: 10.1007/s00181-018-1514-8
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Article (Accepted version)
accessLevelPublic
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Journal ISSN0377-7332
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Creation17/10/2019 14:57:00
First validation17/10/2019 14:57:00
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