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Doctoral thesis
Open access
English

Statistical modelling and inference for covariate-dependent extremal dependence

ContributorsMhalla, Linda
Defense date2018-06-28
Abstract

In this thesis, we develop new models for covariate-varying tail dependence structures and propose novel techniques for fitting these models to both block maxima and threshold exceedances data, under the assumptions of asymptotic dependence and asymptotic independence. Our proposals for the flexible incorporation of covariate influence rely on the (vector) generalized additive modelling infrastructure, and are established in a parametric setting and a non-parametric setting where we develop projection techniques enabling the reduction of the problem of characterizing joint tail dependences to the modelling of univariate random variables. Inference is performed by penalized maximum likelihood estimation combined, when applicable, with censored likelihood techniques. The performance of the resulting estimators is assessed either through simulation studies or based on asymptotic distributions. The developed methodologies are illustrated on environmental datasets where dependence between large events is linked to a set of covariates describing time as well as characteristics of the measurement sites.

eng
Keywords
  • Angular density
  • Asymptotic dependence
  • Asymptotic independence
  • Covariate-adjustment
  • Extreme value theory
  • Generalized additive models
  • Max-stable random vectors
  • Multivariate extreme values
  • Penalized log-likelihood
  • Threshold exceedances
  • Vector generalized additive models.
Citation (ISO format)
MHALLA, Linda. Statistical modelling and inference for covariate-dependent extremal dependence. 2018. doi: 10.13097/archive-ouverte/unige:106918
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Technical informations

Creation07/11/2018 9:17:00 AM
First validation07/11/2018 9:17:00 AM
Update time03/15/2023 8:29:15 AM
Status update03/15/2023 8:29:14 AM
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