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Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach

Azevedo, Ines L
Published in Environmental Research Letters. 2018, vol. 13, no. 034004
Abstract Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). We present results of an international expert elicitation (N=14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of a M≥3 event range from 0.2% to 95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2% to 100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M≥5 event span from 0.002% to 2% during stimulation and 0.003% to 3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If induced M=3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 thousand inhabitants, most experts estimate 50% probability that the loss is contained within 0.5 million USD without any injuries or fatalities. In case of induced M=5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and 1 or no fatality. As we observe vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest to document individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.
Keywords enhanced geothermal systemsinduced seismicityexpert elicitationrisk assessmentrisk governance
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Research groups ISE Pôle Sciences
ISE Energie
FORE10 Renewable Energy Systems
Project FNS: 160563
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TRUTNEVYTE, Evelina, AZEVEDO, Ines L. Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach. In: Environmental Research Letters, 2018, vol. 13, n° 034004. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9eb2 https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:101507

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Deposited on : 2018-01-22

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